Wednesday, June 20, 2007

MySpace for $12B: The 21st century Farabuttos







Seriously, these numbers are starting to get really ridiculous. Is Yahoo! really contemplating a deal to buy MySpace for $12B? All this mis/disinformation has the market confused. I mean.....even the talks about MSFT buying Yahoo! are resurfacing. Anything to stay in the news........amazing!

You even have some analysts going in the completely opposite direction expecting Yahoo! to divest its valuable web properties. In one day's time, Jerry's little headache has mushroomed into a full blow migraine.

"He didn't function as chief Yahoo, so why would you think he will succeed as CEO?" said Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry. "They already missed the boat and, in the Internet space, there are no second chances."
The doubters have already started swinging the axe. Honestly, this is a great bschool case study in the making. I'm sure there are some HBS professors licking their chops with versions A, B, C, and D already written. What are Yahoo!'s options when going against Google?

Hirer smarter people.....KO, GOOG.
Spend more money....KO, GOOG.
Develop better applications.....TKO, GOOG.
Focus on search.....Arm Bar, Yahoo! taps out.
Execute better acquisitions......(I guess you have to buy someone first)....No Contest.
Re-evaluate the entire business strategy......(Now McKinsey is licking their chops. I can see the fees already!$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$)

Jerry, if I were you, I would lobby for some serious stock options. You can't ask for a big salary...that was Semel's downfall. Get those options, get that stock price up to $50 like the street wants/needs and get the hell out of Dodge. The Street.....that's the real problem. In order to fix the mess, you have to be content with letting the stock hang for at least a year. Is the world that patient? I doubt it. Look what happened on your first day in the office. I'd hate/love to be in your shoes.

Now back to the $12B MySpace quagmire. Even if the number was real, does Jerry have those two things that are required to pull the trigger? Who does? No deal, then you've missed the boat yet again. Deal, then you've substantially over paid. It's a no win situation.

My 2 cents.........If the internet was invented in the 1830's, then the Farabuttos would have been PHP programmers, not tailors. As such, they would be peddling beautiful social networks with the "wonderful quality of being invisible to any man who was unfit for his office or unpardonably stupid."

If my memory servers me correctly, a Stanford degree wasn't required to figure this one out?